It has been a year since the post - How Much would You've Gained if You had Invested All Singapore REITs since Their IPOs, which presented gains from Singapore REITs of an investor named Ah Nuah (lazy in Hokkien). Fast forward 1 year today, with the recent fast and furious share prices decline, is Ah Nuah's portfolio still in green?
A quick history for SREITs: the first REIT listed is CapitaMall Trust was listed in July 2002 on Singapore Exchange. Subsequently, Ascendas REIT was listed in November 2002, followed by Fortune REIT listed in August 2003. Throughout these years, there are 7 mergers between REITs and 6 REITs/BizTrusts delisted or suspended. Fast forward to today, there are 38 REITs and 2 BizTrusts which operate similarly to REITs.
Next, let's recap how Ah Nuah invests:
- He subscribes S$ 5,000 to each and every IPO of REITs and BizTrust (which operates similarly to REITs).
- He gets the full allotment every time.
- He never participated in any preferential offer or rights issue.
- He never sold his nil-paid rights for profit nor consideration units after any mergers. Too lazy to follow the news, isn't he?
| Amount | Return | |
|---|---|---|
| Total Capital Injected | $265,000.00 | - |
| Capital for Current Listing | $230,000.00 | - |
| Current Value | $222,666.12 | - |
| Dividends | $203,627.01 | 76.8% |
| Realized Gain/Loss | $(8,618.65) | -3.3% |
| Unrealized Gain/Loss | $(7,333.88) | -2.8% |
| Total Gain/Loss | $187,674.48 | 70.8% |
What are the best and worst performers to date based on CAGR? Let's see below:
| Highest CAGR | Value | Lowest CAGR | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keppel DC REIT | 12.2% | Eagle Hospitality Trust, USD | -100.0% |
| 2 | Mapletree Industrial Trust | 11.9% | Daiwa House Logistics Trust | -27.6% |
| 3 | Croesus Retail Trust | 11.1% | Digital Core REIT, USD | -26.8% |
| 4 | Parkway Life REIT | 10.4% | ARA US Hospitality Trust, USD | -19.3% |
| 5 | Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust | 9.7% | Saizen REIT* | -10.1% |
| 6 | CapitaLand Ascendas REIT | 9.4% | United Hampshire US REIT, USD | -8.3% |
| 7 | Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust | 8.9% | Prime US REIT, USD | -7.9% |
| 8 | Mapletree Logistics Trust | 8.2% | Dasin Retail Trust | -5.3% |
| 9 | Frasers Centrepoint Trust | 8.1% | Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust | -3.6% |
| 10 | Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust | 7.7% | AIMS APAC REIT* | -3.4% |
Keppel DC REIT gives the highest CAGR, followed by Mapletree Industrial Trust and Croesus Retail Trust. However, he has lost 100% of the fund in Eagle Hospitality Trust, followed by Daiwa House Logistics Trust and Digital Core REIT. Let's refer below for the statistics of CAGR returns:
| CAGR Range | Qty | CAGR Range | Qty |
|---|---|---|---|
| -5% and below | 8 | 2.5% to 5% | 9 |
| -5% to -2.5% | 3 | 5% to 7.5% | 7 |
| -2.5% to 0% | 9 | 7.5% to 10% | 6 |
| 0% to 2.5% | 7 | 10% and above | 4 |
There are 20 counters with negative returns, 16 counters with 0-5% CAGR and 17 counters with more than 5% CAGR. The ratio for loss and gain is 20:33.
Next, what if Ah Nuah only buy MACFK IPO counters:
*Frasers Commercial Trust is excluded as it was listed as Allco Commercial REIT initially, without Frasers involvement.
** Lippo Mall Indonesia Retail Trust is included as it was listed as Lippo-Mapletree Indonesia Retail Trust where Mapletree Capital (a wholly-owned subsidiary of Mapletree Investments Pte Ltd) owned 40% of the manager - Lippo-Mapletree Indonesia Retail Trust Management Ltd. In mid-2011, Lippo Karawaci Tbk acquired the entire 40% shareholding from Mapletree.
*** PRIME US REIT is included due to the 30% interest in REIT manager by Keppel Capital Two Pte. Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Keppel Capital Management Pte Ltd and in turn, wholly-owned by Keppel Capital Holdings Pte. Ltd. which is the asset management arm of Keppel Corporation Limited.
If he only invested in MACFK-related IPO, the capital would be S$ 95,000 and the total return would be 143.4%. Just the dividend alone is at 109.1%, which is more than his capital. The realized gain is S$ 1,424.19 and the unrealized gain is S$ 31,188.03. The total return in terms of % is double of investing in all the IPOs.
Anyway, despite the recent selldown, Ah Nuah's total return is still on the green side. Although his portfolio value has decreased by S$50k as compared to last year, he could still receive S$14k dividend per year from those current listings. Not bad huh? Yes, the share price could decline more from now given the next interest rate hike seems imminent now. Many would say is stupid to get the dividend in exchange for a paper loss because the paper loss would require many years of dividends to cover back. This is assuming the share price and dividends remain stagnant for "many years" as they mentioned.
In hindsight, it would be better to sell everything last year and buy back lower now. Well, Ah Nuah is not a good market-timer, and a lazy guy like him simply doesn't care how others judge him. Who knows, there might be some bunch of people calling him as Ah "Huat" at the back. Now, the thing is, are you a good market timer? And whether do you care what others say about your dividend strategy?
You could also refer below for more information:
SREITs Dashboard - Detailed information on individual Singapore REIT
SREITs Data - Overview and Detail of Singapore REIT
REIT Review - List of previous REIT analysis posts
Singapore REITs Post Telegram Channel - Join to receive posts for Singapore REITs
REIT-TIREMENT Patreon - Support my work and get exclusive content
REIT-TIREMENT Facebook Page - Support by liking my Facebook Page
REIT Investing Community - Facebook Group where members share and discuss REIT topic
*Disclaimer: Materials in this blog are based on my research and opinion which I don't guarantee accuracy, completeness, and reliability. It should not be taken as financial advice or a statement of fact. I shall not be held liable for errors, omissions and loss or damage due to the use of the material in this blog. Under no circumstances does the information presented on this blog represent a buy, sell, or hold recommendation on any security, please always do your own due diligence before any decision is made.
No comments:
Post a Comment